It’s time to do the Great Swami predictions for the Grammy Awards, and while I have some clear favorites, this year seems to be just a tad more difficult to predict, due to some bizarre wins over the past few years. I’ll give it a go here, but please let me know what you all think.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Alison Krauss & Robert Plant, Raising Sand (Prediction)
Coldplay, Viva La Vida (Pick)
Ne-Yo, Year Of The Gentleman
Lil Wayne, Tha Carter III
Radiohead, In Rainbows
While I gave the Ne-Yo CD a great review this past year, I just feel like he’s in over his head in this category. Lil Wayne pulled a great collection of tracks together, and Radiohead did their thing, but I really think this is going to be between the ubiquitous Coldplay and the critical darlings Krauss & Plant. The Nashville voting block has become much stronger over the past few years, so Raising Sand gets the edge.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Adele (Prediction) (Pick)
Duffy
The Jonas Brothers
Lady Antebellum
Jazmine Sullivan
My concerns of Adele and Duffy canceling each other out have faded, as Adele’s popularity peaked at exactly the right time. Everyone else’s efforts really feel like debuts, while Adele’s 19 has the soul of a veteran, and should triumph.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Adele, “Chasing Pavements”
Coldplay, “Viva La Vida” (Pick)
Leona Lewis, “Bleeding Love”
M.I.A., “Paper Planes” (Prediction)
Robert Plant and Alison Kraus, “Please Read The Letter”
Since Record of the Year addresses production, you really have to give credit to Coldplay, who took their usual formula and gave it enough of a tweak to result in a truly uplifting record, but I have a hunch that M.I.A. will be the hipster pick of the night.
SONG OF THE YEAR
“American Boy,” William Adams, Keith Harris, Josh Lopez, Caleb Speir, John Stephens, Estelle Swaray & Kanye West, songwriters
“Chasing Pavements,” Adele Adkins & Eg White, songwriters (Pick)
“I’m Yours,” Jason Mraz, songwriter
“Love Song,” Sara Bareilles, songwriter
“Viva La Vida,” Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion & Chris Martin, songwriters (Prediction)
The hardest category for me to pick, since all of the songs on this list appeared on my Top Songs of 2007 and 2008. From a songwriter’s standpoint, voters will be hard-pressed to vote for Estelle’s seven songwriters. I’m not sure that Adele and Sara have enough clout with their records, so the prediction comes down to Coldplay and Jason Mraz. Edge definitely goes to Coldplay, although Mraz was still on the radio when the voters got their ballots.
And to mix things up a bit…
BEST DANCE RECORDING
Daft Punk, “Harder Better Faster Stronger” (Prediction)
Hot Chip, “Ready For The Floor”
Lady Gaga & Colby O’Donis, “Just Dance”
Madonna, “Give It 2 Me” (Pick)
Rihanna, “Disturbia”
Sam Sparro, “Black & Gold”
With Kanye’s “Stronger” having been everywhere at the end of 2007, I fear that this live version of Daft Punk will get the nomination, but for my money, the true dance song on the list is Madonna. Having said all of this, Sam’s record seemed to be the hip “go-to” record at wildly different concerts throughout the year, so I’m wondering if there might not be an edge in there.
BEST ELECTRONIC/DANCE ALBUM
Brazilian Girls, New York City
Daft Punk, Alive 2007
Cyndi Lauper, Bring Ya To The Brink (Pick) (Prediction)
Kylie Minogue, X
Moby, Last Night
Robyn
Y’all know I love me some Robyn, and the album is terrific, but Cyndi’s record IS a dance album. Brilliant album, and should grab the Grammy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kylie pick this up, though. Dance seems to be the only category she can win in.
So pop music in 2008 was a mixed bag of trends. Every time you thought that something good was in the air, another annoying development would pop up. Here’s a brief list of some trends that drove me batty or gave me a glimmer of hope over the past 12 months.
Bad: Flooding the Market with Singles – Taylor Swift, I’m coming for you, and I’m packing a CD case and a restraining order. iTunes had so much luck with the Jonas Brothers in advancing tracks to their fans prior to the full-length release of “A Little Bit Longer” that the formula was rolled out for the likes of Fall Out Boy, Kanye West, and Ms Swift. By the time “Fearless” was released in November, six of her singles had debuted in the top 20 of the Hot 100, breaking the Jonas Brothers’ record of five debuts in one calendar year.
Good: The Quick Release of Hot Singles – Case in point, the new Leona Lewis single for “Run”, which is already up on iTunes, despite it being pretty clear that the record label here was going for at least one more single off the original US version of “Spirit”. Record companies have the flexibility to throw things up for public consumption with little lead time, and the consumer wins when that occurs. Think back to American Idol, and the demand for live versions of hot performances. By the following evening, those fans could have a professional-grade recording on their iPod, and I think everyone wins in that equation…
Good: Pet Shop Boys Get Respect – If I had mentioned Girls Aloud and Pet Shop Boys working together six months ago, most of you would have laughed yourselves into epileptic fits. Flash forward to November ’08, and the one track on the new GA CD getting universal respect is “The Loving Kind”, co-written by…the Pet Shop Boys. Add to that their work with the Killers on this year’s Christmas track, and their recognition for Outstanding Contribution to Music in February from the Brit Awards, and you have what’s shaping up to be a banner year for PSB. Now, if we could just get another hit record out of them here in the States.
Bad: Too Much of Too Few – What do these names have in common: T.I., Beyonce, T-Pain, Britney Spears, Ne-Yo, Lil Wayne, and Kanye West. Why, all of these folks had multiple top 10 hits at the same time during some point of 2008. While it’s great to maximize your promotional investment with concurrent singles focused on different demographics (Beyonce, that’s got your weave strands all over it), is it really healthy in the long run? I mean, remember when an album with six singles meant a two-year run on the Billboard 200? Now, six singles come out before the album is released (see Taylor Swift, above). On top of that, you add in all of the incestuous team-ups and collaborations, and it makes for a pretty boring chart. For example, at #26 this week is Ludacris co-starring T-Pain, and at #27 is T-Pain and Ludacris. Do I really need to go further with this?

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